One sky, seven forecasts
The same place through every major weather model, scored against what the Icelandic Met Office's stations actually measured.
Temperature, all models
Dots are real measurements. Shading is the spread between models.
Wind, all models
Dots are real measurements. Shading is the spread between models.
Who called it?
Each model's day-old forecast for the last 48 hours against the nearest weather station · Scored against Reykjavík Hljómskálagarður
ICON has been closest here lately
- 1ICON—0.5°1.3
- 2UKMO—0.5°1.8
- 3HARMONIEruns 0.5° warm0.8°3.0
- 4ECMWFruns 0.6° cold0.8°2.3
- 5GFSruns 0.6° cold0.8°2.8
Veðurstofan, yr.no: No public archive of old runs.
The contenders
- VeðurstofanVeðurstofa Íslands · Station forecast
The Met Office's own forecast for the nearest station: the models plus the forecasters' judgement. (Reykjavík Hljómskálagarður)
- yr.noMET Norway · ECMWF + post-processing
Iceland's most-used weather app. Here it is ECMWF with Norwegian post-processing.
- HARMONIEUWC-West · DMI & Veðurstofan · 2 km
The 2 km model the Icelandic Met Office runs with the Danish, Irish and Dutch services. It actually sees the mountains and fjords.
- ECMWFEuropean Centre · 9 km
The global model most forecasters rate as the world's best.
- ICONDWD · Germany · 13 km
Germany's weather service. Solid, and often underrated.
- UKMOMet Office · UK · 10 km
The British Met Office, our nearest neighbour to the south.
- GFSNOAA · USA · 13 km
The American model. Free and everywhere, but often the coarsest here.